Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 73.44%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for Numancia had a probability of 10.19%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.97%) and 3-0 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.75%), while for a Numancia win it was 0-1 (3.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Numancia
73.44% ( 0.45)	16.37% ( -0.23)	10.19% ( -0.22)

Both teams to score 49.16% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.66% (

0.42)

38.34% (

-0.42)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.37% (

0.44)

60.62% (

-0.44)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.98% (

0.21)

9.02% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

69.28% (

0.5)

30.71% (

-0.5)

Numancia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.03% (

-0.15)

45.96% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.3% (

-0.12)

81.69% (

0.12)

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 73.43%

Numancia 10.19%

Draw 16.37%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Numancia
2-0 @ 11.99% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.97% ( -0.1) 3-0 @ 9.62% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 9.33% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 5.79% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 4.5% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 2.91% ( 0) 5-0 @ 2.79% ( 0.08) 5-1 @ 2.17% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.75% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.04) Other @ 4.04% Total : 73.43%	1-1 @ 7.75% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 4.15% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 3.62% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.85% Total : 16.37%	0-1 @ 3.22% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.76% Total : 10.19%