It is 10 years since Osasuna last beat Atletico in La Liga, and we are expecting a 12th straight success for the capital outfit in this fixture. Simeone's side have been so strong at home this season, and it is difficult to see anything other than a routine success for the Red and Whites on Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 66.19%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 14.01%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.26%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.41%), while for a Osasuna win it was 0-1 (4.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
-0.02) 
0.36) 
