Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 52.07%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Numancia had a probability of 22.93%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.78%) and 1-2 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.87%), while for a Numancia win it was 1-0 (7.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
-0.06) 
0.18) 
