Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 52.68%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Numancia had a probability of 20%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.42%) and 1-2 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.2%), while for a Numancia win it was 1-0 (8.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Gijon would win this match.
