A draw would not be enough for Real Sociedad to finish fifth, although it might be taken out of their hands ahead of this match. The hosts will be determined to end on a win regardless of whether it means they finish ahead of Real Betis, but Atletico, who might need to triumph to secure third, should be good enough for a point on the final weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 39.09%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 33.26% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (10.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
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