Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Numancia win with a probability of 42.09%. A win for Extremadura had a probability of 29.36% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Numancia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.3%) and 2-1 (8.21%). The likeliest Extremadura win was 0-1 (10.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Numancia in this match.