Sevilla only need a point on Sunday to ensure that they claim a top-four spot, and we are expecting the visitors to pick up the result that they require. Lopetegui's side have only lost three times on their travels this season, sharing the points on nine occasions, and we are backing a low-scoring draw here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 51.47%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Sevilla had a probability of 22.44%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.26%) and 2-1 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for a Sevilla win it was 0-1 (8.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
-0.08) 
0.04) 
