SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 51.54%. A win for Real Madrid had a probability of 25.69% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.4%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Real Madrid win was 1-2 (6.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.44%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Real Madrid |
51.54% ( -1.74) | 22.76% ( 0.8) | 25.69% ( 0.95) |
| Both teams to score 59.93% ( -1.81) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.67% ( -2.84) | 40.33% ( 2.84) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.3% ( -2.99) | 62.7% ( 2.99) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.23% ( -1.59) | 15.77% ( 1.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.1% ( -3.01) | 44.9% ( 3.01) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.15% ( -0.8) | 28.85% ( 0.8) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.29% ( -1) | 64.71% ( 1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Real Madrid |
| 2-1 @ 9.65% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.4% ( 0.63)2-0 @ 7.76% ( 0.17)3-1 @ 5.94% ( -0.34)3-0 @ 4.78% ( -0.16)3-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.3)4-1 @ 2.74% ( -0.32)4-0 @ 2.21% ( -0.21)4-2 @ 1.71% ( -0.24)5-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.19)Other @ 3.66% Total : 51.54% | 1-1 @ 10.44% ( 0.56) 2-2 @ 6% ( -0.13)0-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.57)3-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.16)Other @ 0.24% Total : 22.76% | 1-2 @ 6.49% ( 0.22) 0-1 @ 5.66% ( 0.6)0-2 @ 3.52% ( 0.3)1-3 @ 2.69% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.49% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.1)Other @ 3.4% Total : 25.69% |
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