Between two huge derbies and amid a worrying run of injuries, Milan may make heavy weather of seeing off their struggling hosts - particularly as the Rossoneri's second string have proved impotent when called upon this season. Spezia's woes in the final third can aid their cause, though; helping them edge to victory and stay in contention for a top-four finish.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 58.3%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 19.21%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.29%) and 1-2 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.67%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-0 (5.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.
-0.09) 
0.07) 
