Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 66.45%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Le Havre had a probability of 14.92%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 1-0 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.6%), while for a Le Havre win it was 1-2 (4.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.