SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 78.62%. A draw had a probability of 12.8% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 8.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (8.83%) and 2-1 (8.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.54%), while for an Almeria win it was 1-2 (2.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Almeria |
78.62% ( 0.88) | 12.79% ( -0.25) | 8.59% ( -0.63) |
| Both teams to score 57.53% ( -2.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 74.94% ( -1.02) | 25.06% ( 1.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 55% ( -1.35) | 44.99% ( 1.35) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.94% ( -0.06) | 5.05% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 79.86% ( -0.2) | 20.13% ( 0.2) |
| Almeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.59% ( -2.1) | 39.4% ( 2.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.89% ( -2.02) | 76.1% ( 2.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Almeria |
| 2-0 @ 8.87% ( 0.51) 3-0 @ 8.83% ( 0.47)2-1 @ 8.26% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 8.22% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 6.59% ( 0.32)4-1 @ 6.14% ( -0.04)1-0 @ 5.94% ( 0.37)5-0 @ 3.93% ( 0.18)3-2 @ 3.83% ( -0.24)5-1 @ 3.66% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 2.86% ( -0.19)6-0 @ 1.96% ( 0.08)6-1 @ 1.82% ( -0.03)5-2 @ 1.71% ( -0.12)Other @ 6% Total : 78.62% | 1-1 @ 5.54% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.22)0-0 @ 1.99% ( 0.13)3-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.15)Other @ 0.23% Total : 12.79% | 1-2 @ 2.58% ( -0.13) 0-1 @ 1.85% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.14)Other @ 2.96% Total : 8.59% |
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