SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 65.89%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 14.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.07%) and 1-2 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.42%), while for a SC Farense win it was 1-0 (4.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SC Farense | Draw | Benfica |
14.27% ( -0.05) | 19.83% ( 0.19) | 65.89% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 50.16% ( -0.79) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.21% ( -0.98) | 43.79% ( 0.98) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.82% ( -0.96) | 66.18% ( 0.97) |
| SC Farense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.29% ( -0.68) | 42.71% ( 0.68) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.95% ( -0.58) | 79.04% ( 0.58) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.56% ( -0.33) | 12.44% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.63% ( -0.69) | 38.37% ( 0.7) |
| Score Analysis |
| SC Farense | Draw | Benfica |
| 1-0 @ 4.52% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 4.01% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.18% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.51% Total : 14.28% | 1-1 @ 9.42% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 5.31% ( 0.22)2-2 @ 4.18% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.92% Total : 19.83% | 0-2 @ 11.54% ( 0.2) 0-1 @ 11.07% ( 0.33)1-2 @ 9.82% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 8.02% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 6.82% ( -0.1)0-4 @ 4.18% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 3.55% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 2.9% ( -0.1)0-5 @ 1.74% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 1.51% ( -0.07)1-5 @ 1.48% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.25% Total : 65.89% |
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