We are not expecting this to be a classic, but it is vital that Rayo secure all three points. Almeria have been a very difficult team to back all season, and we are finding it tough again here, ultimately settling on a narrow success for the hosts on Sunday night.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 52.07%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 22.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.9%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.93%), while for an Almeria win it was 0-1 (7.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
-0.42) 
0.06) 
