SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 72.59%. A draw had a probability of 16.1% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 11.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 3-0 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.45%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-2 (3.33%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Arouca |
72.59% ( -2.77) | 16.15% ( 1.53) | 11.26% ( 1.24) |
| Both teams to score 54.27% ( -1.5) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.12% ( -4.03) | 33.88% ( 4.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.27% ( -4.72) | 55.73% ( 4.73) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.89% ( -1.49) | 8.11% ( 1.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 71.51% ( -3.89) | 28.48% ( 3.89) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.06% ( -0.67) | 40.94% ( 0.67) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.49% ( -0.6) | 77.5% ( 0.6) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Arouca |
| 2-0 @ 10.47% ( 0.64) 2-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.42)3-0 @ 8.77% ( -0.12)1-0 @ 8.34% ( 1.1)3-1 @ 7.83% ( -0.25)4-0 @ 5.51% ( -0.53)4-1 @ 4.92% ( -0.57)3-2 @ 3.5% ( -0.18)5-0 @ 2.77% ( -0.51)5-1 @ 2.47% ( -0.51)4-2 @ 2.2% ( -0.3)6-0 @ 1.16% ( -0.32)5-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.25)6-1 @ 1.04% ( -0.31)Other @ 3.14% Total : 72.58% | 1-1 @ 7.45% ( 0.87) 2-2 @ 4.18% ( 0.11)0-0 @ 3.32% ( 0.66)3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.16% Total : 16.15% | 1-2 @ 3.33% ( 0.33) 0-1 @ 2.97% ( 0.54)0-2 @ 1.32% ( 0.22)2-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.08)Other @ 1.42% Total : 11.26% |
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