Almeria have only won once in the league this season, and that success came on their travels. It is so difficult to back them to pick up all three points in any match, and Getafe have drawn eight times on the road this season, which is the highest in the division. We can see another stalemate here, which would confirm Almeria's relegation with five games left.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 38.78%. A win for Getafe had a probability of 34.08% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.28%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Getafe win was 0-1 (10.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.
-0.07) 
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