Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 56.18%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Pergolettese had a probability of 20.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.98%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a Pergolettese win it was 0-1 (6.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brescia would win this match.
0.23) 
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