Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burton Albion win with a probability of 42.4%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 30.49% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burton Albion win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (7.86%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 0-1 (9.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
0.41) 
-0.41) 
