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League Two | Gameweek 46
Apr 27, 2024 at 3pm UK
County Ground
M

Swindon
3 - 3
Morecambe

Austin (5', 35'), Kokolo (74')
McCarthy (46')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Adams (15'), Fairclough (21'), Smith (86')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Grimsby Town 2-0 Swindon
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Morecambe 1-2 Forest Green
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Swindon Town 1-1 Morecambe

It has been a disappointing campaign for both teams, with each likely looking forward to the season drawing to a close this weekend. With that in mind, it would not be a surprise to see them battle it out to a draw, particularly due to the poor form Swindon and Morecambe have coming into this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 53.38%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 24.72% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.69%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-2 (6.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Swindon TownDrawMorecambe
53.38% (0.034000000000006 0.03) 21.89% (0.0019999999999989 0) 24.72% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Both teams to score 61.98% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.84% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)37.15% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.64% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)59.36% (0.047999999999995 0.05)
Swindon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.96% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)14.04% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.4% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)41.6% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Morecambe Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.11% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)27.89% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.49% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)63.5% (0.066000000000003 0.07)
Score Analysis
    Swindon Town 53.38%
    Morecambe 24.72%
    Draw 21.89%
Swindon TownDrawMorecambe
2-1 @ 9.64% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-0 @ 7.69% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 7.55% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.31% (0.0020000000000007 0)
3-0 @ 4.94% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 4.03% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-1 @ 3.1% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 2.42% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-2 @ 1.98% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
5-1 @ 1.22%
5-0 @ 0.95% (0.001 0)
Other @ 3.58%
Total : 53.38%
1-1 @ 9.82% (0.004999999999999 0)
2-2 @ 6.15% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-0 @ 3.92% (0.008 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.71% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 21.89%
1-2 @ 6.27% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-1 @ 5% (0.0029999999999992 0)
0-2 @ 3.19% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 2.67% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.62% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.36% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.62%
Total : 24.72%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Grimsby Town 2-0 Swindon
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Walsall 2-1 Swindon
Tuesday, April 16 at 7.45pm in League Two
Last Game: Swindon 3-2 AFC Wimbledon
Saturday, April 13 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Barrow 0-2 Swindon
Saturday, April 6 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Sutton 3-1 Swindon
Monday, April 1 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Swindon 2-1 Notts County
Friday, March 29 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Morecambe 1-2 Forest Green
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Stockport 2-0 Morecambe
Saturday, April 13 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Morecambe 0-1 Crewe
Tuesday, April 9 at 7.45pm in League Two
Last Game: Morecambe 0-3 Doncaster
Saturday, April 6 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Morecambe 2-1 Barrow
Monday, April 1 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Accrington 1-2 Morecambe
Friday, March 29 at 3pm in League Two


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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