Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Como win with a probability of 46.03%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 27.65% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Como win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.05%) and 0-2 (8.54%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 1-0 (8.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Como would win this match.
0.05) 
-0.07) 
