The last four meetings between Casa Pia and Chaves have produced a combined 13 goals and we anticipate another action-packed contest this weekend. Having picked up four points from their last two games, Chaves visit the Estadio Pina Monique with renewed confidence and we are backing them to claim a narrow win.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 39.2%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 33.82% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.35%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 1-0 (9.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.
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