Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 53.04%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Bari had a probability of 20.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a Bari win it was 0-1 (8.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Frosinone in this match.
-0.03) 
0.04) 
