Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 37.48%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 36.64% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (6.23%). The likeliest Lazio win was 0-1 (9.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
0.14) 
-0.29) 
