Lazio's inconsistency means while they may be favourites for this one, it could be a much closer outing than Sarri would prefer.
The visitors Frosinone are in the midst of a rut though, so this will be a tough task, especially because they have been poor on the road this season.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 58.19%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Frosinone had a probability of 18.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.04%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.04%), while for a Frosinone win it was 0-1 (6.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
-0.12) 
0.02) 
