Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 40.75%. A win for Gateshead had a probability of 35.16% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.6%) and 0-2 (6.01%). The likeliest Gateshead win was 2-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
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