Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rochdale win with a probability of 39.11%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 34.8% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rochdale win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (9.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rochdale would win this match.
0.02) 
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