Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 59.45%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Machico had a probability of 19.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.8%) and 0-2 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.06%), while for a Machico win it was 2-1 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
