Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 54.8%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 23.14% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.53%) and 0-2 (8.25%). The likeliest Nacional win was 2-1 (6.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
Result | ||
Nacional | Draw | Braga |
23.14% (![]() | 22.06% (![]() | 54.8% (![]() |
Both teams to score 59.44% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.35% (![]() | 39.65% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38% (![]() | 62% (![]() |
Nacional Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.48% (![]() | 30.52% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.25% (![]() | 66.74% (![]() |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.56% (![]() | 14.44% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.61% (![]() | 42.39% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Nacional | Draw | Braga |
2-1 @ 6.01% (![]() 1-0 @ 5.23% ( ![]() 2-0 @ 3.1% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 2.38% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 2.3% 3-0 @ 1.23% ( ![]() Other @ 2.9% Total : 23.14% | 1-1 @ 10.12% (![]() 2-2 @ 5.81% ( ![]() 0-0 @ 4.41% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 1.48% ( ![]() Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.06% | 1-2 @ 9.79% (![]() 0-1 @ 8.53% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 8.25% 1-3 @ 6.32% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 5.32% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 3.75% ( ![]() 1-4 @ 3.06% ( ![]() 0-4 @ 2.58% ( ![]() 2-4 @ 1.81% ( ![]() 1-5 @ 1.18% ( ![]() 0-5 @ 1% ( ![]() Other @ 3.21% Total : 54.8% |
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