Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 41.11%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 32.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (9.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%).
0.04) 
-0.05) 
