Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Modena win with a probability of 54.84%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 20.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Modena win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.77%), while for a Cagliari win it was 0-1 (7.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
1.64) 
-0.45) 
