Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Modena win with a probability of 40.07%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 33.84% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Modena win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (6.86%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 0-1 (8.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Modena would win this match.
-0.46) 
0.01) 
