Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 41.75%. A win for Uniao de Leiria had a probability of 30.72% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest Uniao de Leiria win was 0-1 (9.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
0.07) 
-0.07) 
