SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 71.67%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 11.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.94%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.09%), while for a Moreirense win it was 0-1 (3.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Moreirense |
71.67% ( -0.69) | 17.1% ( 0.27) | 11.23% ( 0.42) |
| Both teams to score 50.36% ( 0.53) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.23% ( -0.08) | 38.77% ( 0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.92% ( -0.08) | 61.08% ( 0.08) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.46% ( -0.18) | 9.54% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 68.04% ( -0.43) | 31.96% ( 0.43) |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.67% ( 0.7) | 44.33% ( -0.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.61% ( 0.57) | 80.39% ( -0.56) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Moreirense |
| 2-0 @ 11.67% ( -0.15) 1-0 @ 9.94% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 9.5% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 9.14% ( -0.19)3-1 @ 7.44% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 5.37% ( -0.16)4-1 @ 4.37% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 3.03% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 2.52% ( -0.1)5-1 @ 2.05% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.02)6-0 @ 0.99% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.87% Total : 71.66% | 1-1 @ 8.09% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 4.23% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 3.86% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.93% Total : 17.1% | 0-1 @ 3.44% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 1.4% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.05% Total : 11.23% |
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