Benfica will be coming into this one looking to bounce back after a disappointing stoppage-time defeat to title rivals Sporting Lisbon, and they are yet to lose at home this season.
Moreirense have performed well against Benfica in recent matchups, drawing all of the last three meetings, but they have failed to win this match since 2018.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 71.67%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 11.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.94%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.09%), while for a Moreirense win it was 0-1 (3.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
-0.69) 
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