SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 38.61%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 36.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (6.24%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 0-1 (8.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Moreirense | Draw | Estoril Praia |
38.61% ( -1.36) | 25.37% ( -0.38) | 36.02% ( 1.74) |
| Both teams to score 56.4% ( 1.56) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.61% ( 1.9) | 47.39% ( -1.9) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.4% ( 1.74) | 69.6% ( -1.73) |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.81% ( 0.14) | 24.19% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.48% ( 0.2) | 58.52% ( -0.2) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.39% ( 1.93) | 25.61% ( -1.92) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.51% ( 2.55) | 60.49% ( -2.55) |
| Score Analysis |
| Moreirense | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 1-0 @ 8.79% ( -0.68) 2-1 @ 8.5% ( -0.13)2-0 @ 6.24% ( -0.45)3-1 @ 4.02% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 2.95% ( -0.2)3-2 @ 2.74% ( 0.12)4-1 @ 1.43% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.93% Total : 38.61% | 1-1 @ 11.97% ( -0.24) 0-0 @ 6.19% ( -0.51)2-2 @ 5.79% ( 0.22)3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.12)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.36% | 0-1 @ 8.44% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 8.16% ( 0.28)0-2 @ 5.75% ( 0.18)1-3 @ 3.7% ( 0.32)2-3 @ 2.63% ( 0.24)0-3 @ 2.61% ( 0.21)1-4 @ 1.26% ( 0.17)Other @ 3.47% Total : 36.02% |
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