Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 53.57%. A win for Porto II had a probability of 24.07% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.52%) and 2-0 (8.09%). The likeliest Porto II win was 1-2 (6.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Nacional in this match.
