Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 47.2%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 27.58% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood.
-0.05) 
0.07) 
