Pacos de Ferreira may have secured a vital win last weekend, but they have only tasted victory in front of their own fans twice all season, and with Sporting Lisbon's record on the road, it is difficult to see anything other than an away victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 76.79%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 8.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (10.27%) and 0-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.93%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 1-0 (2.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
-0.03) 
0.06) 
