Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 54.99%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Burgos had a probability of 19.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.44%) and 2-1 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.84%), while for a Burgos win it was 0-1 (7.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.03) 
