Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 37.81%. A win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 33.76% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.86%) and 2-0 (7.12%). The likeliest Real Valladolid win was 0-1 (11.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Burgos in this match.
0.01) 
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