Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 40.97%. A draw had a probability of 31.1% and a win for Alcorcon had a probability of 27.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.58%) and 1-2 (7.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.31%), while for an Alcorcon win it was 1-0 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.
-1.25) 
0.31) 
