SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 41.05%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 33.9% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (7.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
| Result | ||
| St Pauli | Draw | Atalanta BC |
41.05% ( 0.14) | 25.05% ( -0.03) | 33.9% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 57.12% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.72% ( 0.1) | 46.28% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.43% ( 0.09) | 68.57% ( -0.09) |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.54% ( 0.11) | 22.46% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.99% ( 0.16) | 56.01% ( -0.17) |
| Atalanta BC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.67% ( -0.02) | 26.33% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.54% ( -0.03) | 61.46% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| St Pauli | Draw | Atalanta BC |
| 1-0 @ 8.83% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.8% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 6.59% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.38% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.28% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.92% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.64% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.09% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.29% Total : 41.05% | 1-1 @ 11.78% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.91% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 5.87% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.04% | 0-1 @ 7.89% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 7.87% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 5.27% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 3.5% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.61% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.34% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.17% ( -0)Other @ 3.25% Total : 33.9% |
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