Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 41.05%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 33.9% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (7.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
0.14) 
-0.03) 
