Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 44.87%. A win for Greuther Furth had a probability of 32.16% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.91%) and 0-2 (6.12%). The likeliest Greuther Furth win was 2-1 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.
-0.19) 
0.26) 
