Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Panathinaikos win with a probability of 57.68%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Asteras Tripolis had a probability of 15.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Panathinaikos win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.17%) and 2-1 (8.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12%), while for an Asteras Tripolis win it was 0-1 (7.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 17.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Panathinaikos in this match.
-0.05) 
0.1) 
