SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Spain | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Croatia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Albania | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Austria | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Sweden | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 5 | Estonia | 8 | -20 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Albania win with a probability of 75.96%. A draw had a probability of 15.6% and a win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 8.44%.
The most likely scoreline for an Albania win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.05%) and 3-0 (10.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.41%), while for an Azerbaijan win it was 0-1 (3.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Albania would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Albania | Draw | Azerbaijan |
75.96% ( 3.07) | 15.59% ( -1.61) | 8.44% ( -1.47) |
| Both teams to score 44.49% ( -0.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.52% ( 2.66) | 40.48% ( -2.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.14% ( 2.68) | 62.86% ( -2.68) |
| Albania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.03% ( 1.42) | 8.96% ( -1.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 69.42% ( 3.33) | 30.57% ( -3.34) |
| Azerbaijan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.87% ( -1.42) | 51.12% ( 1.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.57% ( -0.97) | 85.42% ( 0.97) |
| Score Analysis |
| Albania | Draw | Azerbaijan |
| 2-0 @ 13.32% ( 0.09) 1-0 @ 11.05% ( -0.64)3-0 @ 10.71% ( 0.72)2-1 @ 8.94% ( -0.31)3-1 @ 7.19% ( 0.21)4-0 @ 6.47% ( 0.81)4-1 @ 4.34% ( 0.38)5-0 @ 3.12% ( 0.56)3-2 @ 2.41% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 2.09% ( 0.3)4-2 @ 1.46% ( 0.07)6-0 @ 1.25% ( 0.29)Other @ 3.59% Total : 75.94% | 1-1 @ 7.41% ( -0.76) 0-0 @ 4.58% ( -0.58)2-2 @ 3% ( -0.24)Other @ 0.6% Total : 15.59% | 0-1 @ 3.07% ( -0.54) 1-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.37)0-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.23)Other @ 1.85% Total : 8.44% |
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