SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Austria | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| 2 | Belgium | 7 | 13 | 17 |
| 3 | Sweden | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 7 | -5 | 7 |
| 5 | Estonia | 7 | -18 | 1 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Austria | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| 2 | Belgium | 7 | 13 | 17 |
| 3 | Sweden | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 7 | -5 | 7 |
| 5 | Estonia | 7 | -18 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 66.89%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 13.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.52%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.11%), while for an Azerbaijan win it was 0-1 (4.23%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Belgium | Draw | Azerbaijan |
66.89% ( -0.03) | 19.23% ( 0.03) | 13.89% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 51.17% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.08% ( -0.1) | 41.92% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.67% ( -0.1) | 64.33% ( 0.1) |
| Belgium Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.38% ( -0.04) | 11.62% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.38% ( -0.09) | 36.62% ( 0.08) |
| Azerbaijan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.9% ( -0.05) | 42.1% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.48% ( -0.04) | 78.52% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Belgium | Draw | Azerbaijan |
| 2-0 @ 11.33% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 10.52% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 9.8% ( 0)3-0 @ 8.13% ( -0)3-1 @ 7.04% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 4.38% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 3.79% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.04% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.88% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.64% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.63% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.69% Total : 66.87% | 1-1 @ 9.11% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.89% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.24% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.99% Total : 19.23% | 0-1 @ 4.23% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 3.94% 0-2 @ 1.83% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.22% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.14% ( -0)Other @ 1.53% Total : 13.89% |
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