SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Austria | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Sweden | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 5 | Estonia | 8 | -20 | 1 |
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 8 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | Serbia | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 8 | -2 | 11 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 8 | -6 | 6 |
| 5 | Bulgaria | 8 | -7 | 4 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Azerbaijan win with a probability of 47.66%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 25.93%.
The most likely scoreline for an Azerbaijan win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.1%) and 2-1 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.48%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 0-1 (8.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Azerbaijan | Draw | Bulgaria |
47.66% ( 0.05) | 26.42% ( -0) | 25.93% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 48.47% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.49% | 55.51% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.31% | 76.69% ( 0) |
| Azerbaijan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.69% ( 0.02) | 23.31% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.75% ( 0.03) | 57.25% ( -0.03) |
| Bulgaria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.21% ( -0.03) | 36.8% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.42% ( -0.03) | 73.58% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Azerbaijan | Draw | Bulgaria |
| 1-0 @ 12.49% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.09% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.41% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.21% 4-0 @ 1.61% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.61% ( 0)Other @ 2.73% Total : 47.66% | 1-1 @ 12.48% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.58% ( 0)2-2 @ 4.55% ( -0)Other @ 0.81% Total : 26.41% | 0-1 @ 8.58% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.24% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.29% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.08% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.52% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.43% ( -0)Other @ 1.8% Total : 25.93% |
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