SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 6 | 13 | 16 |
| 2 | Austria | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Sweden | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 5 | Estonia | 6 | -16 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austria win with a probability of 50.2%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 24.26%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austria win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.45%) and 1-2 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for an Azerbaijan win it was 1-0 (7.83%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Austria in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Austria.
| Result | ||
| Azerbaijan | Draw | Austria |
24.26% ( -0.19) | 25.53% ( -0.09) | 50.2% ( 0.28) |
| Both teams to score 49.51% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.6% ( 0.18) | 53.4% ( -0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.06% ( 0.15) | 74.93% ( -0.15) |
| Azerbaijan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.9% ( -0.07) | 37.09% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.11% ( -0.07) | 73.88% ( 0.07) |
| Austria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.7% ( 0.19) | 21.29% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.77% ( 0.3) | 54.23% ( -0.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Azerbaijan | Draw | Austria |
| 1-0 @ 7.83% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 6.01% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 3.88% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 1.99% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.54% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.28% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.73% Total : 24.26% | 1-1 @ 12.11% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 7.9% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 4.65% ( 0)Other @ 0.87% Total : 25.53% | 0-1 @ 12.21% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 9.45% ( 0.04)1-2 @ 9.37% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 4.87% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 4.83% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.4% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.88% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.87% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.38% Total : 50.19% |
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