SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 64.9%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Iraq had a probability of 12.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.74%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.05%), while for a Iraq win it was 0-1 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 17.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Colombia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Colombia.
| Result | ||
| Colombia | Draw | Iraq |
64.9% ( 0.36) | 22.91% ( -0.12) | 12.2% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 36.3% ( -0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.39% ( -0.02) | 59.61% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.06% ( -0.01) | 79.94% ( 0.01) |
| Colombia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82% ( 0.12) | 18% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.14% ( 0.21) | 48.86% ( -0.21) |
| Iraq Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 44.27% ( -0.4) | 55.73% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 11.69% ( -0.24) | 88.31% ( 0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Colombia | Draw | Iraq |
| 1-0 @ 17.2% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 14.74% ( 0.12)2-1 @ 8.62% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 8.43% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 4.93% 4-0 @ 3.62% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 2.11% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 1.24% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.56% Total : 64.89% | 1-1 @ 10.05% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 10.02% 2-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.3% Total : 22.89% | 0-1 @ 5.86% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 1.71% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.68% Total : 12.2% |
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