SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Argentina | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Mexico | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Poland | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 57.53%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Iraq had a probability of 15.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.19%) and 2-1 (8.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.21%), while for a Iraq win it was 0-1 (7.73%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mexico | Draw | Iraq |
57.53% ( 0.07) | 26.5% ( -0.02) | 15.97% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 36.09% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.09% ( 0.01) | 64.9% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.18% ( 0.01) | 83.82% ( -0.01) |
| Mexico Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77% ( 0.04) | 22.99% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.2% ( 0.05) | 56.8% ( -0.05) |
| Iraq Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 46.86% ( -0.06) | 53.13% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.26% ( -0.04) | 86.73% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mexico | Draw | Iraq |
| 1-0 @ 17.96% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 13.19% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 8.35% ( -0)3-0 @ 6.47% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.09% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.5% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.29% ( -0)Other @ 2.29% Total : 57.52% | 0-0 @ 12.21% ( -0.01) 1-1 @ 11.35% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 2.64% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.29% Total : 26.49% | 0-1 @ 7.73% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 3.59% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.44% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.21% Total : 15.97% |
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