SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ecuador | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Senegal | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Qatar | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 38.31%. A win for Iraq had a probability of 34.86% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.28%) and 2-0 (6.75%). The likeliest Iraq win was 0-1 (9.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Ecuador | Draw | Iraq |
38.31% ( -0.05) | 26.83% ( -0) | 34.86% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 51.38% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.25% ( 0.02) | 53.74% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.78% ( 0.01) | 75.22% ( -0.02) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.71% ( -0.02) | 27.28% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.28% ( -0.03) | 62.72% ( 0.02) |
| Iraq Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.65% ( 0.04) | 29.34% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.68% ( 0.05) | 65.32% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ecuador | Draw | Iraq |
| 1-0 @ 10.39% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.28% ( -0)2-0 @ 6.75% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.59% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.92% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.2% 4-1 @ 1.16% ( -0)4-0 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 2.06% Total : 38.3% | 1-1 @ 12.75% 0-0 @ 8.01% ( -0)2-2 @ 5.08% ( 0)Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.83% | 0-1 @ 9.82% ( 0) 1-2 @ 7.82% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.02% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.2% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.46% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.08% ( 0)1-4 @ 0.98% ( 0)Other @ 2.5% Total : 34.86% |
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