SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Gambia | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Mauritania | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 52.69%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Mali had a probability of 21.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.45%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.04%), while for a Mali win it was 0-1 (7.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ecuador in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Ecuador.
| Result | ||
| Ecuador | Draw | Mali |
52.69% ( -0.05) | 25.62% ( 0.01) | 21.69% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 46.39% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.98% ( 0.02) | 56.02% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.9% ( 0.02) | 77.1% ( -0.02) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.69% ( -0.01) | 21.31% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.75% ( -0.02) | 54.25% ( 0.02) |
| Mali Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.96% ( 0.06) | 41.04% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.4% ( 0.05) | 77.59% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ecuador | Draw | Mali |
| 1-0 @ 13.52% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 10.45% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 9.31% 3-0 @ 5.39% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.8% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.14% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.08% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.85% ( -0)Other @ 3.15% Total : 52.69% | 1-1 @ 12.04% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.75% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.15% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.69% Total : 25.62% | 0-1 @ 7.79% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.36% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.47% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.23% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.03% ( 0)Other @ 1.22% Total : 21.69% |
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